On March 26, 2025, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard delivered opening remarks at a House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence hearing for the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The opening statement as delivered is below.
Opening Statement As Delivered by
The Honorable Tulsi Gabbard,
Director of National Intelligence
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
March 26, 2025
Thank you very much, Chairman Crawford and Ranking Member Himes, Members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity for us to be here to present the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment.
I'm joined here by my colleagues from the CIA, DIA, FBI and NSA. Our testimony today offers the collective assessment of the 18 U.S. Intelligence elements, making up the U.S. Intelligence Community and draws on the intelligence collection and information available to the IC from open source and private sector and the expertise of our analysts.
It evaluates what the IC assesses most threatens our people and our nation's ability to live in a peaceful, free, secure and prosperous society. As you know very well, we face an increasingly complex threat environment that is threatening us here at home and our interests abroad. I'll begin by focusing on what most immediately and directly threatens the United States and the wellbeing of the American people, non-state criminal groups and terrorists, putting American lives and livelihood at risk. I'll then move on to focus on the key nation states who have the capability to threaten our security in the interests of the United States. Cartels, gangs and other transnational criminal organizations in our part of the world are engaging in a wide array of illicit activity, from narcotics trafficking to money laundering, smuggling of illegal immigrants and human trafficking, which endanger the health, welfare and safety of everyday Americans.
Based on our latest reporting available for the year long period ending October 2024, cartels were largely responsible for the deaths of more than 54,000 American citizens due to synthetic opioids. Mexico based transnational criminal organizations are the main suppliers of illicit fentanyl to the U.S. market, and are quickly adapting to enforcement and regulatory pressures by using multiple sources and methods to procure precursor chemicals and equipment primarily from China and India, many of which are dual use chemicals used in legitimate industries.
Independent fentanyl producers are also increasingly fragmenting the drug trade in Mexico. The ready availability of precursor chemicals and ease of making illicit fentanyl have enabled independent actors to increase illicit fentanyl production and smuggling operations in Mexico. Cartels are profiting from human trafficking and have likely facilitated more than two million illegal immigrants encountered by law enforcement at the U.S. Southwest border in 2024 alone, straining our vital resources and putting the American people at risk.
Criminal groups drive much of the unrest and lawlessness in the Western hemisphere. They also engage in extortion, weapons and human smuggling and other illicit and dangerous revenue seeking operations, including kidnapping for ransom, forced labor and sex trafficking. While some of these key drivers of migrants are expected to persist, heightened U.S. border security enforcement and deportations under the Trump administration are proving to serve as a deterrent for migrants seeking to illegally cross our borders.
U.S. border patrol apprehensions along the Southwest border in January 2025, dropped 85 percent from the same period in 2024. Transnational Islamist extremists such as ISIS and Al Qaeda, and affiliated jihadi groups continue to pursue, enable, or inspire attacks against the United States and our citizens abroad and within the homeland to advance their ultimate objective of establishing a global Islamist caliphate. This includes heightened efforts to spread their ideology, to recruit and radicalize individuals in the U.S. and the West.
While the New Year's Day attacker in New Orleans had no known direct contact with ISIS terrorists, he was influenced and radicalized by ISIS ideological propaganda, as one example. Al Qaeda and its affiliates continue to call for attacks against the United States as they conduct attacks overseas. These jihadist groups have shown their ability to adapt and evolve, including using new technology and tactics to spread their ideology and recruit new followers.
A range of non-state cyber criminals are also targeting our economic interests, our critical infrastructure, and advanced commercial capability for extortion, other coercive pursuits and financial gain. These actors are using a variety of tactics, including phishing, ransomware, and denial of service attacks to disrupt our systems and steal sensitive and lucrative information using available technologies and taking advantage of U.S. cyber vulnerabilities.
Ransomware actors last year, for example, attacked the largest payment processor for U.S. healthcare institutions, and another set of criminal actors conducted cyber-attacks against U.S. water utilities. Some of these non-state cyber actors also operate as proxies for or emulate similar activities being carried out by major state actors.
The IC sees China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea engaging in activities that could challenge U.S. capabilities and interests, especially related to our security and economy. They are, in some cases working together in different areas to target U.S. interests and to protect themselves from U.S. sanctions. At this point, the IC assesses that China is our most capable strategic competitor. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the People's Republic of China seeks to position itself as a leading power in the world stage economically, technologically, and militarily. Beijing is driven in part by a belief that Washington is pursuing a broad effort to contain China's rise and undermine CCP rule.
China's most serious domestic challenge is probably China's slowing economy and the potential instability that could occur if socioeconomic grievances lead to large scale unrest. Growing economic tensions with the United States and other countries could also weigh on China's plans for economic growth and domestic job creation. China's military is fielding advanced capabilities including hypersonic weapons, stealth aircraft, advanced submarines, stronger space and cyber warfare assets, and a larger arsenal of nuclear weapons.
While it appears they would like to develop and maintain positive ties with the United States and the Trump administration to advance its own interests and avoid conflict, China is building its military capability in part to gain an advantage in the event of a military conflict with the United States around the issue of China's efforts towards unification with the Republic of China or Taiwan, Beijing is advancing its cyber capabilities for sophisticated operations aimed at stealing sensitive U.S. government and private sector information and pre-positioning additional asymmetric attack options that may be deployed in a conflict.
China's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches, including last year's massive compromise of U.S. telecom infrastructure, commonly referred to as Salt Typhoon. Beijing currently dominates global markets and strategically important supply chains, for example, with the mining and processing of several critical minerals. In December, China imposed an export ban to the United States on gallium, germanium, and antimony, all of which are important to the production of semiconductors and our defense technologies.
This was in direct response to U.S. export controls on chips designed to broadly limit PRC access to advanced chips and chip making equipment. China also aims to compete in other critical global industries, including AI, legacy semiconductor chip production, biomanufacturing and genetic sequencing, and medical and pharmaceutical supply production.
Russia's nuclear and conventional military capabilities, along with its demonstrated economic and military resilience make it a formidable competitor. Moscow has more nuclear weapons than any other nation that could inflict catastrophic damage on the United States and the world in the event of a major war that Russian leaders fear put them and their regime at serious risk. In late 2024, Russia announced updates to its public nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions under which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons. Russia is building a more modern and survivable nuclear force designed to circumvent U.S. missile defense through reliable retaliatory strike potential. It intends to deter the U.S. by holding the U.S. homeland at risk, and by having the capabilities to threaten nuclear war in a conflict.
Russia's developed advanced cyber capabilities and has attempted to pre-position access to U.S. critical infrastructure for asymmetric options and make it a persistent cyber threat. Russia's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches, including the 2023 hack of Microsoft. Russia's also fielding new capabilities and anti-satellite weapons meant to degrade U.S. and allied space infrastructure. Among Russia's most concerning developments is a new satellite intended to carry a nuclear weapon as an anti-satellite weapon, violating longstanding international law against such activity and putting the U.S. and global economy at risk.
Iran continues to seek to expand its influence in the Middle East, despite the degradation to its proxies and defenses during the Gaza conflict. Iran has developed and maintains ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs, including systems capable of striking U.S. targets and allies in the region. They've shown a willingness to use these weapons, including during a 2020 attack on US forces in Iraq and in attacks against Israel in April and October 2024. Iran's cyber operations and capabilities also present a serious threat to U.S. networks and data. The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program. In the past year, we've seen an erosion of a decades long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons. Iran will likely continue efforts to counter Israel and press for U.S. military withdrawal from the region by aiding, arming, and helping to reconstitute its loose consortium of like-minded terrorists, actors, which it refers to as its “Axis of Resistance.” Although weakened, this collection of actors still presents a wide range of threats including to Israel's population, U.S. forces deployed in Iraq and Syria, as well as U.S. and international military and commercial shipping and transit.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is pursuing stronger strategic and conventional capabilities that can target U.S. forces and allies in the region as well as the U.S. homeland to bolster North Korea's leverage and stature defend its regime and achieve at least tacit recognition as a nuclear weapons power.
Kim's recently cemented strategic partnership with Russia supports these goals by providing him with greater financial, military, and diplomatic support, reducing its reliance on China, and providing North Korean forces and weapons systems with war fighting experience. Kim views his strategic weapons advances, its deepening ties with Russia and its economic durability as strengthening his negotiating position against Washington's demands for denuclearization and lessening Kim's need for sanctions relief.
Since 2022, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have grown closer. Removing the accelerant of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to revert these bilateral relationships to a prewar 2021 baseline, leaving room for new strategic priorities and world events to create new incentives or challenges to their expanded cooperation. Russia has been a catalyst for much of this expansion, driven heavily by the support it has needed for its war against Ukraine, including protection from U.S. and Western sanctions.
In addition to exchange of military and other resource capabilities with North Korea, Russia has relied more heavily on China's financial and defense industry backing and has increased combined military exercises with China. With Iran, Russia has also expanded financial ties to mitigate sanctions. Iran has become a critical military supplier to Russia, especially of UAVs in exchange for Russian technical support for Iranian weapons intelligence and advanced cyber capabilities. The threats that we see to U.S. national security are both complex and multifaceted.
In closing, I want to address briefly the signal chat issue that I know many of you are concerned about. The President and National Security Advisor Waltz held a press conference yesterday with a clear message. It was a mistake that a reporter was inadvertently added to a signal chat with high level national security principals, having a policy discussion about imminent strikes against the Houthis and the effects of the strike. National Security Advisor has taken full responsibility for this, and the National Security Council is conducting an in-depth review along with technical experts working to determine how this reporter was inadvertently added to this chat.
The conversation was candid and sensitive, but as the President and National Security Advisor stated, no classified information was shared. There were no sources, methods, locations, or war plans that were shared. This was a standard update to the national security cabinet that was provided alongside updates that were given to foreign partners in the region.
The signal message app comes pre-installed on government devices. In December of 2024, CISA stated, "We strongly urge highly targeted individuals to immediately review and apply best practices provided in the guidance to protect mobile communications, including consistent use of end-to-end encryption." And they name signal as an app, as an example of such an end-to-end encrypted messaging app. Ideally, these conversations occur in person, however, at times fast moving coordination of an unclassified nature is necessary, where in person conversation is not an option.
I'm also aware that a lawsuit was filed yesterday on this issue. As a result of that pending litigation, I'm limited in my ability to comment further on that specific case. My Office of General Counsel will be in close contact with the Department of Justice on this matter. The most important thing to the American people and to all of us is the success of this military operation against terrorists who have been and continue to attack American service members was extremely successful. Thanks to the leadership of President Trump and the actions of our brave men and women in uniform.
As the heads of the American people's Intelligence Community, we will continue to provide the President, you and Congress and our war fighters with timely, unbiased, relevant intelligence to keep our country secure, free, prosperous, and at peace. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
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