20-YEAR PROJECTIONS

This section of the Global Trends report provides 20-year projections of key demographic trends in nine regions: Latin America and Caribbean; Europe; Russia and Eurasia; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; Northeast Asia; Southeast Asia; and Oceania. The 20-year projections include such demographic trends as population growth, rates of urbanization, median age, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, non-communicable disease incidence, and religious af?liation. The graphics also highlight the state of democracy in each region, its readiness for the digital economy, and the potential physical effects of climate change over the next 20 years. We have moderate con?dence in our 20-year outlooks for population growth, age structure, and median age because these measures are extrapolated directly from existing fertility and mortality rates, as well as decades of observed population trends. We have a lower degree of con?dence in the outlooks for urbanization, GDP per capita, climate change, digital readiness, and the rise of noncommunicable disease, which can vary depending on human choices, introducing a greater potential for error.

(COMPARING SELECTED REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS - Click image to enlarge)